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Monday 7 October 2013

IFS analysis of public finance figures - Your View?

English: HM Treasury, London (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

IFS analysis of today's public finance figures:

Office for National Statistics and HM Treasury published Public Sector Finances July 2012. We now have details of central government receipts, central government spending, public sector net investment, borrowing and debt for the first four months of financial year 2013–14.

Headline Comparisons

Central government current receipts in July were 3.5% higher than in the same month last year, excluding the impact of transfers related to the Asset Purchase Facility. Receipts over the four months April to July were 4.9% higher than in the same months of 2012. The Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR's) forecast at the time of the March 2013 Budget implied that central government current receipts for the whole of 2013–14 would be 3.0% above 2012–13 levels.

Central government current spending in July was 3.7% higher than in the same month last year. Spending over the four months April to July was 4.3% higher than in the same months of 2012. The OBR's forecast at the time of the March 2013 Budget implied that central government current spending for the whole of 2013–14 would be 2.2% above 2012–13 levels.

Public sector net investment in July was £1.8bn, £0.2 billion more than was spent in July last year. Together, public sector net investment during the first four months of 2013–14 has been £5.6bn. This is 9.3% more than was spent between April and July in 2012, excluding the impact of the transfer of assets from the Royal Mail Pension Plan to the public sector. The OBR's forecast at the time of the March 2013 Budget predicted that net investment over the whole of 2013–14 would be £24.2 billion, which is 7.3% above last year's level excluding the impact of Royal Mail.

Rowena Crawford, a Senior Research Economist at the IFS, said:

"At first sight, today's figures look disappointing. The Treasury ran a deficit in July this year, whereas they normally run a surplus in this month as a significant chunk of corporation tax payments are made in July. But underlying this headline figure is the continuation of two trends that might not - yet - give us cause for concern.

Receipts of taxes on both corporate and personal income have grown more quickly so far this year than forecast by the OBR for the year as a whole. But we should be cautious of inferring too positive a message from this, as income tax payments are likely to be more front-loaded this year than last as people shifted income to take advantage of the new, lower 45p top rate of income tax and receipts of VAT have grown more sluggishly than forecast for the year as a whole.

On the other hand central government current spending has grown more quickly so far than forecast for the year as a whole. But some of this could be merely differences in the timing of payments this year compared to last, and therefore might unwind later on."

The full analysis can be downloaded from: http://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/6835

Previous analysis of public finance figures can be found at: http://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/browse?type=pf

Economists anticipate USD to fall in Iraq; Hope for $3.30 exchange as it was, although difficult to achieve

It is said that the stability of exchange rates one of the most important means of achieving economic stability, the central bank and banks the responsibility for achieving the goal of price stability and the return of the real value of the Iraqi dinar to the dollar collapses fact in front of our national currency.

New post on Ace Finance News

acefinance:

Reblogged from The Currency Newshound:

| on 07/23/2013

Expected number of experts, finance and economy collapse of the dollar is not at the global level because he is still master of the currencies in most countries of the world but at the level of the exchange rate in Iraqi dinars, we hope for the return of Iraqi dinar exchange rate against 3.3 dollars as it was, but this dream difficult to achieve and fetched it is can be achieved in the light of the global variables but can be achieved to get equal to the price of any one dollar against the dinar .

Sunday 21 July 2013

Was Declaring Bankruptcy A Smart Decision?

Was Declaring Bankruptcy A Smart Decision?:
Nadya Suleman has made no secret of her financial troubles, which came to a head this week when the “Octomom” filed for bankruptcy. The mother of 14 owes creditors nearly $1 million, court papers showed, roughly 20 times as much as the value of her assets. ”It is pretty extreme in terms of how much debt she has,” says Richard Hipp, manager of bankruptcy operations at non-profit credit counselling organization In Charge Debt Solutions. The bankruptcy might give Suleman a fresh start, but the filing means that her creditors — which include a Christian school and her own father — are out of luck.

Suleman filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy, in which a debtor’s assets are liquidated and nearly all unsecured debt is discharged. This might seem like a more drastic option than Chapter 13, which lets filers hang onto some assets — such as a house or a car — if they agree to enter a repayment plan. Before filing, a person considering bankruptcy has to meet with an attorney and go through a means test, which helps determine which type of bankruptcy is most appropriate for them. The test compares the person’s monthly expenses and income to see how much is left over that could be used to pay off debt.

Please tweet at #AceFinanceNews or email your News and Views any time!

Thank you, Ian {Editor}

Monday 26 March 2012

Are Shares As Good As They Look?

These sort of statistics are beginning to put the world in financial jeopardy and people seem to continue to ignore signs of the times. These types of comments are ignored in favour of doing a deal, selling shares or products off the back of other peoples debt misery. A typical comment maybe as follows with a heading starting
The grim signal that Apple just delivered to the markets - just to alarm the market and get interested parties to read more or investigate what it means. Next we reel in the [mug] sorry investor and this has to really get their interest like this - For much of the last 20 years, the prize for the biggest business on the globe has alternated between Microsoft, Exxon Mobil and General Electric. But now one company towers over everyone else – Apple.
Having hooked the [Fish] they follow up with - Then we read that Apple is going to release some of its amazing $100bn cash pile back to investors. The first dividend in 17 years. What should we read into that? (I’ll tell you in a second).
WAIT WAIT - we are now about to tell you a real FACT to make sure you do not wriggle off the hook they have you on, here it is -
After a remarkably eventful week, Apple then suffered its very own ‘flash-crash’ as shares dropped nearly 10% within minutes and forced a halt in trading.
By now you are staggering at the fact that a company so big can suddenly have such a problem, but wait for it the SALES PATTER STARTS like this - To me, the most important of the three stories is the one that was given least coverage. And that is the mini-crash. Today I want to tell you why I think this is so important and what it could mean for the market at large.

Time to put you in the keep net with -

There’s no doubt about it. Apple has become a money printing machine. The figures are just mind-boggling. According to The Economist, sales in the last quarter were almost double those the previous year. And forecasts suggest that sales for 2013 will be nearly triple 2010’s figures.

But we need a CLOSER AND HERE IT IS - No wonder the stock has been flying!

FOLLOWED BY-

There’s so much money coming in the door that management literally doesn't know what to do with it all. And that’s why, last week it announced not only a dividend, but also a $10bn share buyback (where the firm buys back its own stock in the market).

Some investors are saying that this shows Apple has reached the end of the road... that’s why it's handing back money to investors – it's got nowhere to invest it! The cynics also point out that management has a nasty habit of initiating share buybacks right at the top of the market. Surely, they say, now the only way for Apple is down.

FINALLY-

But I’m not so sure. In reality, the dividend is small, they’re giving shareholders back around $30bn over the next three years. At today’s share price, it’ll give investors a yield just below 2%. And the $10bn buyback is smaller still. Cash is rolling in quicker than these giveaways are paying out.

Convincing anyone that stocks can go up and down but by buying these shares at such a good price namely 10% less you as an investor could be the winner. But as with all shares they do go up and down and a final comment like this one just SEALS THE DEAL like this one -

With Apple’s shares trading on a relatively sober forecast p/e of less than 14 times for 2012, the market clearly isn’t expecting loads of growth. That could leave some upside for investors.

Last week it was announced that the value of Apple is now roughly the same as the whole US retail sector. Think about that for a second... there are some big businesses in the US retail sector – and Apple is worth the same as all of them put together!

These types of cases are putting people in a mess everyday and believe me not everyone makes money on the shares they buy, more rather than less make a lose.

So be careful do not believe everything you read as you may be being manipulated without even knowing it!

All the posts are provided by me and any comments l provide are my own view of the markets,with extracts from various articles and posts l have read.

http://acefinancenews.blogspot.com/

Wednesday 25 January 2012

" One Persons Story Of Being In Debt"

Have you ever considered how to borrow money when you really need help and guidance maybe listening to this story you will be able to appreciate how other people can help you. This is one such account of Lissette and is well worth a listen and please comment using our comments box.

All the posts are provided by me and any comments l provide are my own view of the markets and are not the views of the article writer and or news provider.

" Pay Day Loans And The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

These loans originally started in the US and are now commonplace in the UK and are not the type of funds anyone should be contemplating as an easy fix solution to short term borrowing. If you are or need advice leave a comment but can l suggest you listen to this video and it may help you to avoid the problems that you may have with this type of lending.

I will be writing more on this subject very shortly and providing in depth terms and conditions of lenders you should avoid and those that are not as bad.

All the posts are provided by me and any comments l provide are my own view of the markets and are not the views of the article writer and or news provider.

NB Please ignore the note about comments being closed as it applies to youtube and not our our comments box, you can log into any social media and share this we need to spread the word.

Monday 22 August 2011

MBA Delinquency Survey: Comments and State Data

MY VIEW AND FEELINGS ABOUT THIS SURVEY -

As people now have a penchant for buying in the areas of sunnier areas of the US such as Florida and California then it would hold true that they would now have the highest amount of properties in state of foreclosure. As we tend to attract people to these types of property in these area then the tendency will be that numbers will rise and eventually as with all global financial changes we should and will see a drop in prices, due to lack of prosperity in these areas of the US.

MBA Delinquency Survey: Comments and State Data: A couple of comments from MBA chief economist Jay Brinkmann on the conference call:

• The bad news is short term delinquencies increased in Q2. The not-so-bad news is long serious delinquencies declined slightly.

• Because of the high level of delinquencies, there are some questions about the accuracy of the seasonal adjustment.

• Florida has almost 25% of all loans in the U.S. in the foreclosure process. California is 2nd with 10.6%, but the percent of loans in-foreclosure in California (3.62%) is actually below the national average (4.43%).

• Judicial foreclosure states usually have the highest percentage of loans in the foreclosure process.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the percent of loans in the foreclosure process by state and by foreclosure process. Red is for states with a judicial foreclosure process. Because the judicial process is longer, those states typically have a higher percentage of loans in the process. Nevada is an exception.

Florida, Nevada, New Jersey and Illinois are the top four states with percent of loans in the foreclosure process.

This graph shows all delinquent loans by state (sorted by percent seriously delinquent).

Florida and Nevada have the highest percentage of serious delinquent loans, followed by New Jersey, Illinois, New York, Ohio and Maine.

I'll post some more graphs later to show which states are seeing improvement.

Note: the MBA's National Delinquency Survey (NDS) covered "MBA’s National Delinquency Survey covers about 43.9 million first-lien mortgages on one- to four-unit residential properties" and the "The NDS is estimated to cover around 88 percent of the outstanding first-lien mortgages in the market." This gives almost 50 million total first lien mortgages or about 6.4 million delinquent or in foreclosure.

The third graph shows the number of loans delinquent in each state (as opposed to the percent). California is the largest state, so it is no surprise that the number of delinquent loans is very high (I'd expect California to always be #1). In that sense this graph is misleading - in reality California is in about the same shape as Indiana and Rhode Island (previous graph).

Florida has 7.6% of all loans, but almost 25% of all loans in-foreclosure and 18% of all seriously delinquent loans. In most ways, dividing this by states is arbitrary - except the foreclosure process matters.

Earlier:

• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies increased slightly in Q2

All the posts are provided by my own and personal view of the global financial markets and are not always the views of the people who provided the post or article.

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2011 Article IV Consultation with Spain

After more than a decade of strong expansion led by a credit-fueled housing boom, the Spanish economy was hit by three major shocks: the global financial crisis, the busting of Spain’s domestic boom, and the euro area debt crisis. These shocks exposed Spain’s vulnerabilities stemming from accumulated imbalances and pushed the economy into a sharp recession, with the euro area debt crisis subsequently putting pressure on funding costs.

The economy has been gradually recovering and re-balancing. Growth has gradually picked up from the first quarter of 2010, led by strong exports as the re-balancing to external demand proceeded. Private sector savings-investment balances have improved, helping stabilize debt ratios and reduce the current account deficit. The housing market continued to adjust. Real wages moderated and unit labor costs improved. However, at around 21 percent, the unemployment rate is more than twice the euro area average. Inflation has picked up, led by energy prices and indirect taxes, and is again above the euro area average. A reform of collective bargaining aiming at greater firm-level flexibility was presented to Parliament in June 2011, complementing the June 2010 labor market reform.

All the posts are provided by my own and personal view of the global financial markets and are not always the views of the people who provided the post or article.

IMF Executive Board Approves Three-Year US$84.5 Million Stand-By Arrangement with St. Kitts and Nevis

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a three-year Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for an amount equivalent to SDR 52.51 million (about US$84.5 million) with St. Kitts and Nevis. The arrangement will support the authorities’ economic program, coupled with a comprehensive debt restructuring, to restore debt and external sustainability and set the stage for sustained growth.

As a result of the Board’s decision, an amount equivalent to SDR 22.15 million (about US$35.6 million) is available for immediate disbursement. The three-year SBA arrangement represents 590 percent of St. Kitts and Nevis’ (SDR 8.9 million) IMF quota. St. Kitts and Nevis joined the Fund in August 1984.

Following the Executive Board’s discussion of St. Kitts and Nevis on July 27, 2011,
Ms. Nemat Shafik, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, made the following statement:

“The St. Kitts and Nevis economy is gradually recovering from a prolonged recession. However, fiscal imbalances and structural fragility's pose significant risks to the economic outlook.

“The authorities have started to implement an economic program to address these challenges over the medium term. The main objectives of this program are achieving higher growth and a sustainable fiscal position. The authorities’ plans include front-loaded fiscal consolidation, a comprehensive debt restructuring, and further steps to strengthen the financial sector.

True Cost of Obama`s Healthcare Bill So Easy To Care

This is another debarcle that should easily be solved by enabling everyone with the stroke of a pen to have healthcare what ever their color or creed. But easy does not exist in this world of high finance and the so-called power to wield the mighty dollar like some mad axe murderer and quosh peoples hopes for a better world.

When you read all that is required to make this all possible you wonder why the bill cannot be signed sealed and delivered and without all this fuss and nonsense. But that would be so easy and we do not do easy, we look at easy and say OK let`s make it harder and that way we can cover up all the money we will make with administration and service cost`s and to do that we need to make it harder.

But the TRUE COST is not whose idea it was or who was in charge of the bill or getting it through congress but as always, the real true cost is peoples LIVES. So spare a thought for those who you may never get to know but are human beings like us and deserve the best care any money can buy.

" My Thoughts & Feelings About The Stock Market "

Just to add my own thoughts about the last post will be simple and to the point, firstly be careful in these turbulent times about trusting anyone telling you how to make a quick buck. They become millionaires by people who believe their chat and invest in their way of spending your money.Many times l have had a conversation with people whose first words are if only l had listened to my heart and not my head, then l would not be coming to you to help me out with the debts l now have accrued through gambling on the stock market.

Some people reading this post will disagree with my word " gambling " but this is what it is in a cocked hat a gamble as no one can calculate risk to the point of finality, there is always a risk and you will find it hidden in the small print. So if anyone tells you this is a certainty or you cannot lose you can but be assured as all wall street bankers will never tell you.

They make money whether you make or lose money as they are playing with your money on their " Monopoly Board of Life " not your`s.

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